Whenever the bowl selection process gets rolling and fans complain about projections, I think back to a great William Munny line in “The Unforgiven.”
With Sheriff Little Bill bleeding on the floor, he told Munny he didn’t deserve to die that way. Munny responded, “Deserves ain’t got nothing to do with it” and shot him again.
That’s the case with bowl lineups. Just because one team beat another or had a better record doesn’t mean it goes to the higher bowl. Once the College Football Playoff selection committee chooses the four Playoff teams and allocates the other eight for the New Year’s Six bowls, individual bowl directors or ESPN Events make their choices. Attendance and community commerce are primary motivators for one bowl while compelling matchups and television ratings are the key factors for another. How a team finishes its season often becomes a barometer selectors use to gauge fan interest.
These decisions aren’t made unilaterally. Bowl organizers communicate often with school and conference officials to find good fits. They try to avoid repeat matchups and avoid any presence of bowl fatigue.
“At the end of the day, these bowl organizations pride themselves on hospitality and making the experience for these institutions and the student-athletes as memorable as it can possibly be,” said Nick Carparelli, executive director of Bowl Season. “You often see intriguing matchups in bowl games. I think it’s the desire of the conferences and the bowl organizations to try to make the matchups compelling and this year is probably going to be no different.”
Compelling matchups could include reigniting ancient rivalries like Kansas–Missouri in the Liberty Bowl. A fan-friendly selection could include a seven-hour drive for Iowa fans to Nashville instead of a flight with multiple stops to Florida. It also could involve ESPN Events, which owns 16 FBS bowl games and the Celebration Bowl, manufacturing compelling matchups among Group of 5 programs.
“I think the notion of teams playing in bowl games that are geographically advantageous to the institutions, I think ESPN does the best job of managing that because they own and operate 17 games and have complete control,” Carparelli said. “It’s almost like a big puzzle of where teams go, and they don’t have to negotiate with a separate entity. They can operate within that world of 17. They’re able to maximize some of the geographic matchups in those games and it’s been successful for them.”
Below is a bowl primer for every conference and the independent FBS programs. At least two bowl selections are set and the remainder will take place Sunday afternoon. Currently, there are 79 eligible teams for 82 spots. If a bowl needs a fill-in participant, the top 5-7 team based on Academic Progress Rate (APR) fills that spot. Rice, UNLV, Auburn and Michigan State are the top four available programs based on APR.
GO DEEPER
Bowl Projections: Penn State to Rose, Ohio State to Orange
SEC
Eligible teams (11): No. 1 Georgia (12-0, East champion); No. 14 LSU (9-3, West champion); No. 6 Alabama (10-2); No. 7 Tennessee (10-2); No. 19 South Carolina (8-4); No. 24 Mississippi State (8-4); Ole Miss (8-4); Kentucky (7-5); Arkansas (6-6); Missouri (6-6); Florida (6-6).
Primary bowl tie-ins: Sugar (champion or highest-ranked non-Playoff qualifier); Orange (highest-ranked at-large team among Big Ten and Notre Dame); Citrus (first choice outside New Year’s Six bowls); ReliaQuest/Vegas/Gator/Texas/Music City/Liberty (pool of bowls at same tier); Birmingham. Secondary agreement with Gasparilla.
Selection process: Selection committee chooses teams for College Football Playoff and rankings determine which teams qualify for the Sugar, Orange or Cotton. The Citrus Bowl selects its team after CFP rankings and New Year’s Six bowls are chosen. The pool of bowls and schools rank their preference and send their lists to the SEC office, which then decides which teams travel to what games. If any teams are available after the bowl pool, they are slated for Birmingham and beyond.
2021-22 bowl participants: Georgia (Orange, CFP); Alabama (Cotton, CFP); Ole Miss (Sugar); Kentucky (Citrus); Arkansas (ReliaQuest); South Carolina (Duke’s Mayo); Tennessee (Music City); LSU (Texas); Mississippi State (Liberty); Texas A&M (Gator, did not compete); Auburn (Birmingham); Florida (Gasparilla); Missouri (Armed Forces).
Big Ten
Eligible teams: No. 2 Michigan (12-0, East champion); Purdue (8-4, West champion); No. 5 Ohio State (11-1); No. 8 Penn State (10-2); Illinois (8-4); Minnesota (8-4); Iowa (7-5); Maryland (7-5); Wisconsin (6-6).
Primary bowl tie-ins: Rose (champion, highest-ranked non-Playoff qualifier or team eligible for a New Year’s Six bowl); Orange (highest-ranked at-large team among SEC and Notre Dame); Citrus (first choice outside New Year’s Six bowls); ReliaQuest (second choice after Citrus); Music City Bowl (third); Pinstripe (fourth); Duke’s Mayo (fifth); Guaranteed Rate (sixth); Quick Lane (seventh). If the Orange selects a Big Ten team, the league forfeits its ReliaQuest spot to the ACC.
Selection process: Selection committee chooses teams for Playoff. If the Big Ten champion qualifies for the CFP, the Rose has the flexibility to choose either the highest-ranked non-champion or between teams already qualifying for New Year’s Six bowls. Selection committee chooses teams for Playoff and rankings determine which teams qualify for the Rose, Orange or Cotton. The Citrus Bowl selects its team after CFP rankings and New Year’s Six bowls are chosen. The remaining bowls then select in sequential order provided they are within one win of a team above it.
2021-22 bowl participants: Michigan (Orange, CFP); Ohio State (Rose); Michigan State (Peach); Iowa (Citrus); Penn State (ReliaQuest); Wisconsin (Vegas); Purdue (Music City); Maryland (Pinstripe); Minnesota (Guaranteed Rate); Rutgers (Gator, COVID-19 replacement for Texas A&M).
Big 12
Eligible teams: No. 3 TCU (12-0, top seed); No. 10 Kansas State (9-3, second seed); No. 20 Texas (8-4); Texas Tech (7-5); Oklahoma State (7-5); Baylor (6-6); Oklahoma (6-6); Kansas (6-6).
Primary bowl tie-ins: Sugar (champion, then remaining team with top league record); Alamo (second pick); Cheez-It (third); Texas (fourth); Liberty (fifth); Guaranteed Rate (sixth). Secondary agreements with Armed Forces and First Responder.
Selection process: Selection committee chooses teams for Playoff. If the league champion qualifies for the CFP, league standings determine which team qualifies for the Sugar. The Alamo Bowl selects its team with autonomy after CFP rankings and the remaining bowls choose in sequential order.
2021-22 bowl participants: Baylor (Sugar); Oklahoma State (Fiesta); Oklahoma (Alamo); Iowa State (Cheez-It); Kansas State (Texas); Texas Tech (Liberty); West Virginia (Guaranteed Rate)
ACC
Eligible teams: No. 9 Clemson (10-2, Atlantic champion); No. 23 North Carolina (9-3, Coastal champion); No. 13 Florida State (9-3); No. 25 North Carolina State (8-4); Pittsburgh (8-4); Duke (8-4); Syracuse (7-5); Louisville (7-5); Wake Forest (7-5); No. 21 Notre Dame (8-4) is considered part of the ACC bowl lineup.
Primary bowl tie-ins: Orange (champion or highest-ranked non-Playoff qualifier); Cheez-It (pool of 2-4 for Notre Dame, second for ACC); Holiday (pool of 2-4 for Notre Dame, 3-5 with ACC); Gator (pool of 2-4 for Notre Dame, 3-5 for ACC); Duke’s Mayo (3-5 for ACC); Pinstripe (6-7 for ACC); Sun (6-7 for ACC); Military (eighth); Fenway (ninth). Secondary arrangements with Birmingham and Gasparilla. If a Big Ten team competes in the Orange, the ACC takes its ReliaQuest spot. The ReliaQuest then gets the first selection after the New Year’s Six.
Selection process: Selection committee chooses teams for Playoff and Orange Bowl. Without a ReliaQuest spot, the Cheez-It gets the first selection unless it involves Notre Dame, then there’s a pool of teams and the league and Notre Dame make the decision in conjunction. The Cheez-It picks first otherwise, followed by the Holiday and Gator, which have no specific selection order. The schools, bowls and league office coordinate other selections based on sequential order.
2021-22 bowl participants: Pittsburgh (Peach); Notre Dame (Fiesta); Clemson (Cheez-It); Wake Forest (Gator); NC State (Holiday, canceled); Duke’s Mayo (North Carolina); Virginia Tech (Pinstripe); Military (Boston College, canceled); Fenway (Virginia, canceled); Louisville (First Responder).
Pac-12
Eligible teams: No. 4 USC (11-1, top seed); No. 11 Utah (9-3, second seed); No. 12 Washington (10-2); No. 15 Oregon State (9-3); No. 16 Oregon (9-3); No. 17 UCLA (9-3); Washington State (7-5).
Primary bowl tie-ins: Rose (champion or highest-ranked non-Playoff qualifier); Alamo (second); Vegas (third); Holiday (fourth); Sun (fifth); LA Bowl (sixth). Secondary agreements with the Armed Forces, First Responder and Gasparilla.
Selection process: Selection committee chooses teams for Playoff. If the Pac-12 champion qualifies for the CFP, the Rose has the flexibility to choose either the highest-ranked non-champion or between teams already qualifying for New Year’s Six bowls.
2021-22 bowl participants: Utah (Rose); Alamo (Oregon); Vegas (Arizona State); UCLA (Holiday, canceled); Washington State (Sun); LA Bowl (Oregon State).
American
Eligible teams: No. 18 Tulane (10-2, top seed); No. 22 UCF (9-3); Cincinnati (9-3); SMU (7-5); Houston (7-5); East Carolina (7-5); Memphis (6-6).
Primary bowl tie-ins: Primary relationships include the Military, Armed Forces, Fenway and Independence. Secondary agreements include sending teams to three of the following bowls: Birmingham, Boca Raton, Cure, First Responder, Frisco, Gasparilla, Myrtle Beach and New Mexico. Other arrangements also are possible.
Selection process: Selection committee chooses teams for Playoff and New Year’s Six bowl. The highest-ranked champion from among Group of 5 conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt) qualifies for a New Year’s Six bowl. After the CFP committee selections, the order goes ESPN Events, Military, ESPN Events, Independence, then ESPN Events.
2021-22 bowl participants: Cincinnati (Cotton, CFP); East Carolina (Military, canceled); Houston (Birmingham); Memphis (Hawaii, canceled); SMU (Fenway, canceled); Tulsa (Myrtle Beach); UCF (Gasparilla).
Mountain West
Eligible teams: Boise State (9-3, Mountain champion); Fresno State (8-4, West champion); Air Force (9-3); San Jose State (7-4); San Diego State (7-5); Wyoming (7-5); Utah State (6-6).
Primary bowl tie-ins: LA Bowl (champion); Arizona (second); Potato/Hawaii/New Mexico/Dallas-area (ESPN Events). Secondary tie-in with Guaranteed Rate. Other arrangements also are possible.
Selection process: Selection committee chooses teams for Playoff and New Year’s Six bowl. The highest-ranked champion from among Group of 5 conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt) qualifies for a New Year’s Six bowl. Arizona picks second and ESPN Events arranges teams in the other bowls.
2021-22 bowl participants: Utah State (LA Bowl); Fresno State (New Mexico); Potato (Wyoming); Arizona (Boise State, canceled); Hawaii (Hawaii, canceled); San Diego State (Frisco); Air Force (First Responder); Nevada (Quick Lane).
Sun Belt
Eligible teams: Coastal Carolina (9-2, East rep); Troy (10-2, West champion); South Alabama (10-2); Marshall (8-4); Georgia Southern (6-6); Southern Miss (6-6); Louisiana (6-6). James Madison (9-2) is ineligible in its transition from FCS to FBS. Appalachian State (6-6) has two wins against FCS competition and is regarded as a five-win program with regard to bowl eligibility.
Primary bowl tie-ins: New Orleans, LendingTree and at least three ESPN Events bowl games.
Selection process: Selection committee chooses teams for Playoff and New Year’s Six bowl. The highest-ranked champion from among Group of 5 conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt) qualifies for a New Year’s Six bowl. ESPN Events holds the first, third and fourth Sun Belt selections. The New Orleans Bowl picks second and the LendingTree Bowl chooses fifth.
2021-22 bowl participants: Coastal Carolina (Cure), Louisiana (New Orleans), Appalachian State (Boca Raton), Georgia State (Camellia).
Conference USA
Eligible teams: USTA (10-2, top seed); North Texas (7-5, second seed); Western Kentucky (8-5); Middle Tennessee State (7-5); UAB (6-6). Rice (5-7) has the top APR among 5-7 teams, which makes it the first team in line as a fill-in replacement.
Primary bowl tie-ins: New Orleans, Bahamas, Hawaii and four ESPN Events bowl games. Other arrangements also are possible.
Selection process: Selection committee chooses teams for Playoff and New Year’s Six bowl. The highest-ranked champion from among Group of 5 conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt) qualifies for a New Year’s Six bowl. There is no selection order for Conference USA.
2021-22 bowl participants: North Texas (Frisco Classic); UTSA (Frisco); Old Dominion (Myrtle Beach); Marshall (New Orleans); UAB (Independence); UTEP (New Mexico); Western Kentucky (Boca Raton); Middle Tennessee State (Bahamas).
Mid-American
Eligible teams: Toledo (7-5, West champion); Ohio (9-3, East champion); Eastern Michigan (8-4); Miami of Ohio (6-6); Bowling Green (6-6). Buffalo (5-6) plays Akron (2-9) in a makeup game this weekend.
Primary bowl tie-ins: Quick Lane, Bahamas, Camellia, Arizona, Potato. Other arrangements also are possible.
Selection process: Selection committee chooses teams for Playoff and New Year’s Six bowl. The highest-ranked champion from among Group of 5 conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt) qualifies for a New Year’s Six bowl. ESPN Events operates three of the MAC’s bowl games. There’s no direct process.
2021-22 bowl participants: Eastern Michigan (Lending Tree); Northern Illinois (Cure); Toledo (Bahamas); Ball State (Camellia); Western Michigan (Quick Lane); Kent State (Potato); Miami of Ohio (Frisco Classic).
Independents
Eligible teams: Liberty 8-4, Notre Dame 8-4, BYU 7-5, UConn 6-6 are eligible. New Mexico State (5-6) and Army (5-6) currently are ineligible because if either finishes with six wins, two would come against FCS competition. New Mexico State has its appeal Thursday with the NCAA Football Oversight Committee. Its game with San Jose State was canceled after an opposing player died the day before the game. New Mexico State will face FCS team Valparaiso this week.
Primary bowl tie-ins/selection process: Notre Dame is part of the ACC bowl selection process. If qualified, Army would compete in the Independence Bowl. BYU has an arrangement through ESPN Events. Other independents do not have bowl arrangements but are eligible to participate.
2021-22 bowl participants: Notre Dame (Fiesta), BYU (Independence), Liberty (LendingTree), Army (Armed Forces).
(Photo: Joe Petro / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
