Bowl projections and College Football Playoff predictions before Championship Weekend and after the penultimate CFP rankings
A whole slew of things changed in the last few days since we published our latest round of Bowl Projections on Saturday night.
It starts with the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings – which might be a fool’s errand to use as anything concrete. If the committee sticks with its rankings in the end – that’s hardly a sure thing – that affects Alabama, Notre Dame, Tennessee, and potentially Washington.
Next, a slew of rumors and news kicked in as programs needed to start thinking about making travel plans.
A few other things happened to change these up.
Ohio State probably isn’t going to the Rose Bowl. It’ll be time to believe the Rose Bowl doesn’t want the fifth-best team in the country when it happens – and vice versa on the desire from the Buckeyes to go back to Pasadena.
Let’s buy in that the rumors are true. If USC beats Utah on Friday night in the Pac-12 Championship and is in the College Football Playoff, assume the Rose Bowl will go with Penn State and Washington instead of Ohio State vs Utah – no one involved wants a repeat, even though last year’s game between the Buckeyes and Utes was epic.
Remember, at the end of the day, ESPN wants the best matchups for its owned bowls. As always, the conference bowl ties matter … until they don’t.
Buffalo vs Akron matters. If Buffalo wins on Friday night, it’s in. If it doesn’t, it’s out. Let’s go with the big assumption that New Mexico State will be granted a special break despite being 5-6 because its game with San Jose State was cancelled.
If that happens, then Buffalo, NMSU, and the highest-ranked five-win team according to the Academic Progress Rate (APR) – Rice – are all in. If Buffalo loses and/or NMSU doesn’t get the call its way, UNLV is in as the second-highest ranked five-win APR team.
However …
Everything breaks down if Utah beats USC on Friday night and/or Akron beats Buffalo and/or New Mexico State doesn’t get a break. If any or all three of those things happen, take all of this, ball it up, and toss it away because most of this starts from scratch.
What we do know is Miami University and UAB are off to the Bahamas Bowl, and because there are few fun places to go if your school is in San Diego, San Diego State and Middle Tennessee will meet in the Hawaii Bowl.
Other than that, we’re going off a combination of news, info, logic, and educated darts thrown at the target. They aren’t called bowl projections for nothing.
We’ll change things on the fly over the next few days before the big final call goes up Saturday night.
Bowl Projections College Football Playoff Predictions
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CFN 1-131 Rankings | Rankings by Conference
Bowl Eligibility: Every School’s Bowl Situation
2022-2023 conference bowl tie-ins
Bowl Projections: Pre-Championship Weekend
Bowl Projections, Part 2 | New Year’s Six
College Football Playoff Prediction
Teams that accepted bowl bid are in red.
All Times Eastern
HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl
Friday, December 16, 2022
11:30 am, ESPN
Thomas Robinson Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas
Last Year: Middle Tennessee 31, Toledo 24
Bowl Ties: Conference USA vs MAC
Bowl Matchup: UAB vs Miami University
Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Friday, December 16, 2022
3:00, ESPN
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Last Year: Coastal Carolina 47, Northern Illinois 41
Bowl Ties: Group of Five vs Group of Five or Army
Bowl Projection: Troy vs UTSA
Previous Projection: UConn vs Coastal Carolina
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Saturday, December 17, 2022
11:00 am, ESPN
Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Last Year: Canceled
Bowl Ties: ACC vs American Athletic (Conference USA)
Bowl Projection: Louisville vs Cincinnati
Previous Projection: Syracuse vs Memphis
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Saturday, December 17, 2022
12:00, ABC
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Last Year: South Carolina State 31, Jackson State 10
Bowl Ties: MEAC vs SWAC
Bowl Projection: North Carolina Central vs Jackson State
Previous Projection: North Carolina Central vs Jackson State
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, December 17, 2022
2:15, ESPN
Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Last Year: Fresno State 31, UTEP 24
Bowl Ties: Mountain West vs AAC, C-USA, MAC or Sun Belt
Bowl Projection: Wyoming vs BYU
Previous Projection: Air Force vs North Texas
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Saturday, December 17, 2022
3:30, ABC
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Last Year: Utah State 24, Oregon State 13
Bowl Ties: Mountain West vs Pac-12
Bowl Projection: Boise State vs Washington State
Previous Projection: Boise State vs Washington State
LendingTree Bowl
Saturday, December 17, 2022
5:45, ESPN
Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL
Last Year: Liberty 56, Eastern Michigan 20
Bowl Ties: MAC vs Sun Belt (C-USA)
Bowl Projection: Ohio vs Southern Miss
Previous Projection: Bowling Green vs Louisiana
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Saturday, December 17, 2022
7:30, ABC
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Last Year: Wisconsin 20, Arizona State 13
Bowl Ties: Pac-12 vs SEC
Bowl Projection: Oregon State vs Florida
Previous Projection: UCLA vs Arkansas
Frisco Bowl
Saturday, December 17, 2022
9:15, ESPN
Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
Last Year: San Diego State 38, UTSA 24
Bowl Ties: Group of Five vs Group of Five or Army
Bowl Projection: Rice vs New Mexico State or UNLV
Previous Projection: Troy vs Fresno State
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Monday, December 19, 2022
2:30, ESPN
Brooks Stadium, Conway, SC
Last Year: Tulsa 30, Old Dominion 17
Bowl Ties: C-USA, MAC, Sun Belt
Bowl Projection: Liberty vs Marshall
Previous Projection: Liberty vs Georgia Southern
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Tuesday, December 20, 2022
3:30 ESPN
Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
Last Year: Wyoming 52, Kent State 38
Bowl Ties: MAC vs Mountain West
Bowl Projection: Eastern Michigan vs Utah State
Previous Projection: Buffalo vs Utah State
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
Tuesday, December 20, 2022
7:30, ESPN
FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
Last Year: WKU 59, Appalachian State 38
Bowl Ties: Group of Five vs Group of Five
Bowl Projection: UConn vs Coastal Carolina
Previous Projection: Southern Miss vs Houston
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Wednesday, December 21, 2022
9:00, ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Last Year: Louisiana 36, Marshall 21
Bowl Ties: Conference USA vs Sun Belt
Bowl Projection: WKU vs South Alabama
Previous Projection: WKU vs South Alabama
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Thursday, December 22, 2022
7:30, ESPN
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Last Year: Army 24, Missouri 22
Bowl Ties: American Athletic vs Conference USA (Big 12, Pac-12)
Bowl Projection: SMU vs Air Force
Previous Projection: SMU vs UTSA
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Friday, December 23, 2022
TBA, ESPN
Independence Bowl, Shreveport, LA
Last Year: UAB 31, BYU 28
Bowl Ties: American Athletic vs Army
Bowl Projection: Houston vs Louisiana
Previous Projection: UCF vs BYU
Union Home Gasparilla Bowl
Friday, December 23, 2022
TBA, ESPN
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Last Year: UCF 29, Florida 17
Bowl Ties: ACC, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC (AAC, C-USA)
Bowl Projection: East Carolina vs North Texas
Previous Projection: Marshall vs Duke
Easyport Hawaii Bowl
Saturday, December 24, 2022
8:00, ESPN
Clarence TC Ching Complex, Honolulu, HI
Last Year: Canceled
Bowl Ties: Conference USA vs Mountain West
Bowl matchup: Middle Tennessee vs San Diego State
Previous Projection: Middle Tennessee vs San Jose State
Bowl Projections: Pre-Championship Weekend
Bowl Projections, Part 2 | New Year’s Six
College Football Playoff Prediction
