The “Star” in Nick Saban’s defense is usually reserved for players whose production embodies the name of that position. For the past couple of seasons, it’s been Brian Branch, a standout among a supporting cast that likely included at least a half-dozen future top-100 NFL picks. And now? Branch, who declared for the draft on Jan. 2, looks like the most talented off-ball defender in the 2023 class.
The 6-foot-0, 195-pound defensive back seems like he was almost grown out of the ground to play as a nickel for Alabama.
Branch’s speed, change of direction and instincts let him navigate wide ranges of space from the second level of the defense. We know that no one has a deeper menu of play calls for putting players in positions to succeed than the Crimson Tide, and Branch was a skeleton key that allowed for the best utilization of his teammates. Truly, only Will Anderson Jr., the first back-to-back Nagurski Trophy winner in nearly two decades, can argue having had a bigger snap-to-snap influence for that defense.
After splitting time with Malachi Moore to start his career, Branch’s versatility separated him from his peers as the 2021 season played out. His coverage ability stands out among his long list of skills, whether he’s walling off receivers in 2-man, carrying verticals up the seam in man free or Cover 3, or feeling for routes as they break as an underneath zone defender. (Check out a few cutups of Branch in coverage here.)
This is some clutch coverage from Brian Branch to secure the win for @AlabamaFTBL pic.twitter.com/az7izUEvuK
— SEC on CBS 🏈 (@SEConCBS) November 13, 2022
The Athletic draft expert Dane Brugler noted coming into the season that one area Branch needed to improve was his ball skills. Branch showed progress there — he had a pair of interceptions that brought his career mark to four. He finds the ball, breaks on it and knocks it away at the catch point well enough to believe that he can be an above-average playmaker, at worst.
Ball HAWKIN’ today. @BrianBB_1
📺 @espn pic.twitter.com/U7PBLedUU5
— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) December 31, 2022
Branch also has been an adept tackler for as long as we’ve been watching him. He shows eye discipline in tracking the near hip, mirroring the tempo of the ball carrier and executing proper tackle techniques given the situation presented (profile/chest-to-chest tackles, wrap/roll tackles if he loses leverage, low tackles when necessary).
What I saw increase in 2022 was the rate of explosive finishing from Branch, an impressive development for a sub-200 pound player and one that bodes well for him as he moves to the next level. (More examples of Branch as a tackler in space here.)
BOOM! 💥 @BrianBB_1
📺 ESPN+
🔗 https://t.co/Cz1YkPaAbw pic.twitter.com/vl4yTtRCj6— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) November 19, 2022
Layered on top of Branch’s growth in explosive contact was his play as a physical run fitter, be it in the box or in the alley (the space between linemen and receivers). Branch strikes with his hands, instead of dropping his shoulder into blockers or giving up his body. He controls blockers well, knows when to slip blocks and shows up in run support.
You can see his explosiveness at the point of attack, in stacking and pressing tight ends and stretching the ball out long enough for his teammates to get there. (More examples of Branch’s physicality and box fits here.)
In every way, Branch checks the boxes of what you’d want in a defensive back. He’s comfortable in coverage and capable of handling all manner of receivers from outside to the slot, tight ends and running backs. He’s a strong and reliable tackler in virtually every scenario and against every body type, and he understands how to take on blocks as an undersized defensive back who spent a good amount of time lined up in the box.
GO DEEPER
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Yet, for all the best attributes he showed from the nickel corner spot, his most productive future as an NFL player likely won’t come playing that position — and it’s not the fault of anything other than the nature of the NFL.
Sometimes, play callers in the league will send you messages about trends. In 2021, as teams were beginning to outline the next era’s approach to defending modern offenses, discussions on player and position values rapidly changed to keep pace.
There was constant discussion of “big nickel” packages (where the extra defensive back is a safety): fitting the run with a smaller defender and taking the vast majority of a defensive structure and trying to shift it into nickel personnel. That’s a different conversation than “nickel is the new base defense,” which anyone can ascertain by looking at percentages.
With all the time spent reconfiguring how we conceptualize the game on the defensive side, I fear that some of us in the draft space may have made the same kind of mistake that happened with the concept of “3-and-D” and “stretch” players in NBA roster construction. It’s an overwrought talking point that misses the forest for the trees. In basketball, that aforementioned player type is treated as though it is a positions on the floor, but the truth is that it’s just a role — undoubtedly, a crucial one for building a complete team, but just cogs in the greater machine.
Flipping that conversation to the gridiron, let’s examine the production of slot defenders on a base level. Doing so might give us a better picture of the differences between playing football on Saturdays or Sundays and, thereby, clean up any potential projection issues.
Per TruMedia, 108 players logged at least 100 snaps aligned in the slot this NFL season. Only 35 of those players had a tackle rate at or above 10 percent against rush attempts, and only 11 of the 35 are listed as cornerbacks. By design, defenses aren’t asking their nickel defenders to mix it up in the run game and produce like linebackers as tacklers, unless it’s on a defense that plays a majority of the game in nickel personnel regardless of what offensive packages are on the field.
In the passing game, quarterbacks across the league targeted slot defenders an average of 61 percent of the time. This tells me that the nickel defender, specifically, is still far and away a coverage specialist. Players in that role are only asked to fit the run if they boast a unique enough skill set to handle the workload, as is the case for the likes of Mike Hilton, Charvarius Ward, Taron Johnson, Marlon Humphrey, etc.
With Branch, we can look to Texans rookie safety Jalen Pitre as an example. Pitre and Branch boast a similar profile of versatility, a base level of ball skills, excellent tackling and a willingness to show up in the box. They also played nearly identical snap counts at different alignments before reaching the NFL. While both players spent the majority of their college time in the slot, Pitre was drafted to play as a safety who could fit the run or match up over tight ends and No. 4 receiving options.
He exploded on the scene this season with 99 solo tackles and five interceptions.
There goes that man 🔒 @jalenpitre1
📺 » @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/IpLAdRkIwQ
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) January 1, 2023
Because of the differences in quality and style of play, the players you want close to the ball in college should play the nickel, where they can fit the run in space, play RPOs and get into windows for the easy throws spread offenses want at that level. In the NFL, those players should be the “weak safety” (aligned opposite the nickel), asked to handle tight end-side runs, mix up looks in coverage as a deep zone defender or roaming underneath player, and be comfortable dropping into the box or aligning there in dime packages.
The rosiest projections for Branch point to trajectory similar to that of Pitre, if Branch can land somewhere that showcases each piece of the Alabama product’s expansive skill set and allows him be an eraser in the defensive backfield.
Branch is likely to be picked in the early to mid-teens in the first round. And, short of Anderson or Jalen Carter putting up an 8-plus-sack season, I would not be surprised if Branch emerges from Day 1 as the rookie defender most prepared to contribute to winning football.
(Photo: Gary Cosby Jr. / USA Today)
