2023 NFL Draft scenarios: What if the Texans trade down? Where do QBs land?

The 2023 NFL Draft is still months away, and we’ve got a long winter to endure first. But for those football dreamers out there (in other words: anyone reading this), the draft is always on the mind.

There are still two months left in the regular season. Coming out of Week 11, though, here’s how our own Austin Mock projected the top 10 of the 2023 draft would fall:

The actual order headed into this week’s action looked a bit different: the same top three, followed by Las Vegas, Seattle (via Denver), Detroit (via the Rams), Houston (via Cleveland), Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and Philadelphia (via New Orleans. That’s the setup we’ll be using here. With the help of Dane Brugler’s most recent top 50 rankings, I messed around with a few very early scenarios for the 2023 draft.

What’s it look like if we have a trade at No. 1? If there’s a run on quarterbacks right out of the gate? How will the teams with multiple first-round selections use their stockpiles? Let’s take a look.

Scenario 1: Houston trades out of No. 1

No other team has as much to work with in this draft as Houston. In fact, there’s really not even a close second. The Texas’ own first-rounder is currently slotted No. 1. They also have Cleveland’s first, which sits No. 7,  and five of the team’s 12(!) draft picks are presently slotted to be within the top 70.

For context: Only one other team (Seattle) has four picks in the top 60. Houston has plenty of needs, of course, but it has the ability to address (checks notes) basically all of them in this draft, if it wants. For GM Nick Caserio, that could be done by staying put and drafting the board or by maxing out value to make the biggest possible swing.

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While Houston needs a quarterback. I’m not sure we can call the Texans QB-desperate just yet. They might be closer than they were a few weeks ago, now that Davis Mills has been benched, but the 24-year-old (or another bridge) might be able to hold down the fort for a young squad. As always, it will come down to how Houston feels about this year’s QB draft class.

If a team in this draft wants its pick of quarterback (most likely, Alabama’s Bryce Young or Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud … but we’ll see), it’s conceivable Houston could put No. 1 on the table. A rough guess at how something like that could look, with a few different trade partners:

1. Houston trades No. 1 to Carolina for Nos. 2 and 35, and a 2024 third.

The Panthers are in an interesting spot right now. GM Scott Fitterer has Steve Wilks in place as interim coach, but everything about where this franchise is headed — especially on offense — is still TBD. No matter what scheme Carolina runs, though, it will need a consistent quarterback worth investing in, and that’s just not something the Panthers have.

Carolina is in a good spot right now, draft capital-wise, after picking up San Francisco’s second-, third- and fourth-round picks (plus a 2024 fifth rounder) for Christian McCaffrey. If the Panthers wind up No. 2, as we currently project they will, they’d likely only entertain this trade if they deem just one of the QB prospects to be draftable this high. Otherwise, the Panthers are still in position to hold and come out with not only a future quarterback but also some help for him.

The odds of something like this happening feel long, but who knows?

2. Houston trades No. 1 to Las Vegas for Nos. 4, No. 41 and No. 109, and a 2024 second.

I hated this for Vegas before I even finished it. I’m not totally convinced the Raiders need to go all-in on a quarterback for 2023 with what should be a pretty valuable first-round pick. However, Josh McDaniels didn’t draft Derek Carr, and Carr is hardly an untouchable talent.

The Raiders have a lot of draft capital to work with right now: 10 total picks, including three currently slotted in the top 75. It would make a lot more sense for Vegas to stand where it’s at, use this draft to rebuild the offensive and defensive fronts and worry about QB later. But I’m not Mark Davis.

Also, a word on Houston’s biggest needs beyond quarterback. The Texans still have a lot of work to do at tight end and wide receiver, need more help on the defensive line and probably could use another corner (2022 first-round pick Derek Stingley Jr., looks legit). Trading down would allow Houston to add more to the bucket for next year, which would put them in the Drake Maye-Caleb Williams sweepstakes, and still give Caserio enough capital to move back up later in 2022 for pretty much whatever he wants.

Like, perhaps …

3. Houston trades No. 1 to Indianapolis for Nos. 14, 46 and 81, and a 2024 first; Houston then trades Nos. 33 and 46 to Philadelphia for No. 10.

We’re not necessarily here to talk about what the Colts might do in the draft. Jim Irsay has a lot of other stuff going on right now. Still, the Colts obviously need a quarterback, and while this scenario doesn’t feel likely right this second, that QB-need was enough for me to give it a whirl. For Houston, you could put this concept — trading down, then trading back up — to any of these scenarios, and you’d get similar results.

Here, Houston is able to solve its TE problem with what could be a generational talent in Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer (who could flirt with the top 10). It also secures a quarterback for the future and room to pick up two receivers before the end of Round 3.

4. Houston trades No. 1 to Detroit for Nos. 6, 44 and 62, and a 2024 second.

This seems like the most likely of any option here, although all trail Houston staying put at No. 1. The only other team that with enough capital for a move like this is Seattle. Thanks to Geno Smith, the Seahawks don’t feel as desperate for a QB as the Lions do (or probably should).

Detroit general manager Brad Holmes didn’t take a quarterback in 2021 or 2022. The No. 6 pick that we’re using in this hypothetical is actually the Rams’ spot, which Detroit acquired in the Matthew Stafford trade. The Lions also have their own 2023 first (slotted in the teens right now), so this is probably the time to make a move if you’re going to do it.

Detroit’s defense is maturing, behind young pieces like Aidan Hutchinson, Malcolm Rodriguez, Kerby Joseph and Jeff Okudah. The offensive line is one of the best groups in the NFL. We haven’t even see Jameson Williams yet, and he’ll be a factor.

The Lions have a team ready for a playmaking quarterback. Jared Goff really isn’t that guy.

Scenario 2: QBs go 1-2-3

As of that midseason update, Brugler had Young as his No. 3 prospect, Stroud at No. 10 and Kentucky’s Will Levis at 23. Behind them are Stanford’s Tanner McKee (No. 44) and Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker (No. 46), although those rankings came before Hooker’s torn ACL. Florida’s Anthony Richardson is still a bit of a QB wild card, too. If he enters the draft, the 6-foot-4, 232-pound third-year sophomore would be selected, but where? He’s not ready for an NFL starting job, but the tools are insane.

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There’s a decent chance quarterbacks go 1-2, especially if Houston and Carolina hold onto those spots. What might it look like if the QB run extends through the third pick?

Frankly, it would require the Bears trading down (more on that in a second). Chicago has Justin Fields and doesn’t need a quarterback, so this only happens (barring a shift in the draft order) if the Bears make a move. We’ve made the hypothetical trade with Indianapolis here and kept true to Brugler’s board for the top three.

This, of course, means that teams Nos. 4 and 5 are looking at the possibility of drafting generational defensive talents: Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr., and Georgia’s Jalen Carter. Either player could be the top pick in this draft, or they could go 1-2 themselves, and it wouldn’t be shocking or surprising.

Any QB run obviously will start pushing the top-level defensive talent down the board. Kelee Ringo, Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy all qualify, as well — they’re all potential top-five talents. Some might have Murphy even higher than that.

You never know who loves whom when it comes to quarterbacks. If your team is heading toward a pick at the bottom of the top 10 and needs defense, however, you’re in love with this. If you’re the Bears?

Bears trade No. 3 to Indianapolis for Nos. 14, 46 and 81 (and the Colts take Levis)

Told you we’d get to this. Chicago’s biggest need right now is … talent. To a degree, I don’t care where it is. The Bears need more good players, kind of everywhere except quarterback, which means the Bears need more draft picks.

Chicago’s not in a bad spot right now, in terms of capital, but it absolutely could be better. If its season continues on its current downward trend (our projections expect it will), Chicago could be in a great position to add to its haul come spring. You can see what something like this would do for the Bears’ entire draft. They’ve damn near fixed the offensive line and given Fields a game-ready weapon with one trade, and they were still able to pick up needed defensive pieces.

The Bears are in an obvious trade-down position right now, honestly. That’s not a bad thing, as long as their pick is valuable in relation to the board. If Chicago scores a top-two pick, GM Ryan Poles would be in a great spot to jump start this rebuild right now. And we haven’t even talked about the six picks Poles currently has in Round 4 through 7.

As for the Colts? Chris Ballard drew the world’s unluckiest GM card when Andrew Luck retired on him in training camp. Ballard is a smart football mind with a quality staff underneath him, and that group has tried everything it can think of to fix the quarterback position without eating into the franchise’s core.

It hasn’t worked, to date, so this could be the perfect time for Indianapolis to go all-in on a young, talented quarterback and get this thing started over in the right direction. The Colts need that more than they need depth right now.

Scenario 3: What the two-pick teams can get

There are four teams (for now) with two 2023 first-round picks: Houston, Detroit, Seattle and Philadelphia. Obviously, these multi-first scenarios lend themselves to trade speculation, and that can be fun. But it’s often smarter to just stick and draft for need. 

We’ve covered Houston’s situation quite a bit, but what about the other three? 

The Lions are in a great spot right now, and will be in the spring, too, so long as the Rams continue to falter. It’s shocking the Rams’ first-round slot is more valuable than Detroit’s own, but that’s life in the NFL sometimes, and it’s a reminder why teams value these first-rounders. 

The biggest need for Detroit, right now, is debatable. However, if the Lions don’t add serious help for Aaron Glenn’s defense (ideally, in the secondary), then something’s wrong. Ringo is CB1 for this draft. It remains to be seen where these picks shake out, but Detroit’s in great shape to have at least one top-10 selection, and the Georgia corner could well be there. 

At QB, the Lions have options. They can wait around and see where someone like McKee falls. They might even be able to wait on Levis, as it’s still pretty tough to see where he’s going to land. But if Holmes left the first round with a potential CB1 and franchise QB in tow, then the Lions will have checked just about all of their rebuild boxes. They’d be about ready to compete, on some level. 

The Eagles might be a prime trade-down target. Otherwise, they can start to figure out future replacements for their aging star right tackle (Lane Johnson) and edge rusher (Brandon Graham) in one day. That’s pretty good, no matter how you slice it for Philadelphia.

This team is already pushing for a Super Bowl. The window won’t close in 2023, even if there will need to be some adjustments, like any other offseason. Philadelphia is in position to make sure the future remains as stable as the present, but it also could load up and go find a superstar high in this draft.

Houston has the most to work with, and Seattle and Detroit are in great spots. But the Eagles are the best team in football right now, and they’re on this list. That’s nuts. Impressive, but nuts. 

There are many options on the table for Seattle right now, and all of them pretty good.

Quarterback isn’t an immediate need, but Geno Smith is 32. The Seahawks need defensive line help in general, both on the edge and inside, and Bresee is sort of a combination of both. Murphy also could be hanging around here. All those options without having to trade. When you’re up this high without desperate needs, as is more or less the case with Seattle, life’s pretty good. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is going to be a fascinating case. He was terrific as Stroud’s leading receiver in 2021, over Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, but he’s barely played this season due to a hamstring injury. Smith-Njigba (6-1, 200) is not a powerful player, and he’s not going to set any 40-yard dash records, but he’s an outstanding route runner — maybe the best in this draft. He plays wide receiver almost like a great point guard on a fast break, as his wiggle and mid-route adjustments are terrific. It feels like a great potential fit for Seattle if he makes it that far.

(Top photo: Petre Thomas / USA Today)